Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction & Betting Tips – Premier League
Aston Villa Host Fulham Following Cup Eliminations
Aston Villa exited the League Cup following a 0-3 defeat against Bournemouth on 28 October 2026, which ended a four-match winning streak across all competitions. Prior to that result, Villa earned consecutive Premier League victories against Manchester City (2-1) and Newcastle (1-0), along with positive results in European competition. Fulham also enter Saturday’s fixture after a League Cup defeat, losing 0-1 to Crystal Palace on 28 October 2026. This Premier League fixture on Saturday, 31 Oct 2026 at 20:00 UTC presents an opportunity for both teams to return to form in league play.
Aston Villa Maintain Strong Scoring Averages
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | League Cup | Bournemouth | 0-3 | Loss |
| 2026-10-24 | Premier League | Manchester City | 2-1 | Win |
| 2026-10-21 | UEFA Champions League | Viking | 3-1 | Win |
| 2026-10-17 | Premier League | Newcastle | 1-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-14 | UEFA Champions League | Fenerbahçe | 6-0 | Win |
Aston Villa post recent form of LWWWW across all competitions. Over these five matches, Villa have averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Offensively, Villa demonstrated high output in European and domestic matches, including a 6-0 win over Fenerbahçe and a 2-1 victory against Manchester City.
Fulham Defensive Discipline vs Low Scoring Output
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | League Cup | Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Loss |
| 2026-10-24 | Premier League | Coventry | 1-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-17 | Premier League | Hull City | 1-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-10 | Premier League | Ipswich | 1-2 | Loss |
| 2026-09-20 | Premier League | Manchester United | 1-1 | Draw |
Fulham hold recent form of LWWLD across all competitions following their 0-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Across their last five matches, Fulham averaged 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 goals conceded per game. While defensive numbers remain low, limited goal production restricts their overall win margin.
Aston Villa Lead Historical Head-to-Head Record
Aston Villa have won five of the last six meetings between these teams, while Fulham have won once and no draws have been recorded. Fulham won the most recent fixture 1-0 on 25 April 2026. Before that match, Villa had won five consecutive meetings between November 2023 and September 2025.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Premier League | Fulham vs Aston Villa | 1-0 | Fulham |
| 2025-09-28 | Premier League | Aston Villa vs Fulham | 3-1 | Aston Villa |
| 2025-05-03 | Premier League | Aston Villa vs Fulham | 1-0 | Aston Villa |
| 2024-10-19 | Premier League | Fulham vs Aston Villa | 1-3 | Aston Villa |
| 2024-02-17 | Premier League | Fulham vs Aston Villa | 1-2 | Aston Villa |
| 2023-11-12 | Premier League | Aston Villa vs Fulham | 3-1 | Aston Villa |
Predicted Lineups and Squad Availability
Aston Villa – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Z. Suzuki |
| Defender | M. Cash |
| Defender | Pau Torres |
| Defender | T. Mings |
| Defender | I. Maatsen |
| Midfielder | B. Kamara |
| Midfielder | J. McGinn |
| Midfielder | L. Goretzka |
| Midfielder | E. Buendía |
| Attacker | N. Jackson |
| Attacker | T. Abraham |
Fulham – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | B. Leno |
| Defender | K. Tete |
| Defender | J. Andersen |
| Defender | Jorge Cuenca |
| Defender | A. Robinson |
| Midfielder | S. Berge |
| Midfielder | H. Reed |
| Midfielder | Oscar Bobb |
| Midfielder | T. Cairney |
| Midfielder | A. Iwobi |
| Attacker | Rodrigo Muniz |
Team News
Aston Villa absences: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka.
Fulham absences: R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe, R. Sessegnon, E. Smith Rowe.
Model Assessment Identifies Value on Aston Villa
Bookmaker odds place Aston Villa at 1.9, which translates to an implied win probability of 52.6%. Our statistical model projects Aston Villa’s victory probability at 67%, establishing an expected value edge of +27.3% on the home win line. Fulham’s odds of 3.52 imply a 28.4% win probability, whereas our calculation values their win probability at 12%, yielding a negative expected value of -57.8%. The draw line of 3.57 also provides negative value at -25.0% based on our 21% draw estimation.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Aston Villa | 1.9 | ★★★ Value |
| Draw | Draw | 3.57 | No value |
| Match Result | Fulham | 3.52 | No value |
Model Recommendation and Match Verdict
Aston Villa’s scoring rate of 2.4 goals per game provides a clear statistical edge over Fulham’s 0.8 goals per game average. Our model supports a home victory, identifying clear market value on the 1.9 odds for an Aston Villa win.
| Predicted Score | Aston Villa 2-0 Fulham |
| Most Likely Result | Home Win |
| Recommended Bet | Home Win @ 1.90 (EV +27%) |
How This Prediction Was Made
This prediction was prepared by Oliver Grant. The pick combines Oliver’s experience following European football with data gathered for this specific match. Data used: each team’s last five results, head-to-head history, injury and suspension news, pre-match odds, our own outcome probabilities.
Responsible Gambling
18+. This prediction is an opinion based on data, not a guarantee. Betting involves risk – only stake what you can afford to lose and gamble responsibly.
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