Sevilla vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction & Betting Tips – La Liga
Sevilla Seek Stability Against Struggling Alaves
Whether Sevilla can capitalize on their superior scoring output to overcome a vulnerable opponent defense determines the outcome of this fixture on Friday, 6 Nov 2026 at 20:00 UTC. Positioned 6th in the table with 17 points, Sevilla enter this fixture following a 1-3 league loss to Getafe. Deportivo Alaves sit 10th with 12 points, suffering a heavy 1-6 defeat against Barcelona in their latest match. The contrast in goalscoring efficiency provides a clear focal point as both sides attempt to stabilize their form.
Sevilla Defensive Leaks Contrast With Active Attack
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | La Liga | Getafe | 1-3 | Loss |
| 2026-10-29 | Copa del Rey | Hortaleza | 3-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-26 | La Liga | Osasuna | 2-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-18 | La Liga | Real Madrid | 1-4 | Loss |
| 2026-10-12 | La Liga | Levante | 3-3 | Draw |
Across their recent form of LWWLD in all competitions, Sevilla have maintained strong attacking returns alongside noticeable defensive concessions. The host side averages 2.0 goals/game scored while allowing 2.0 conceded/game across their last five matches. Consecutive victories against Osasuna (2-0) and Hortaleza (3-0) displayed clean-sheet capabilities, though conceding four to Real Madrid and three to Getafe reflects ongoing defensive inconsistency.
Deportivo Alaves Struggle to Contain Conceded Goals
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | La Liga | Barcelona | 1-6 | Loss |
| 2026-10-23 | La Liga | Malaga | 1-1 | Draw |
| 2026-10-18 | La Liga | Celta Vigo | 1-2 | Loss |
| 2026-10-10 | La Liga | Atletico Madrid | 1-2 | Loss |
| 2026-09-19 | La Liga | Athletic Club | 0-0 | Draw |
Deportivo Alaves enter this match with a recent form of LDLLD across all competitions, illustrating persistent difficulties at both ends of the pitch. The away side averages 0.8 goals/game scored and 2.2 conceded/game, highlighted by a heavy 1-6 loss to Barcelona on 31 October. Without a win in their last five fixtures, Alaves have struggled to generate consistent scoring opportunities while surrendering multiple goals in three of those matches.
Alaves Hold Advantage in Recent Head-to-Head Record
Historical head-to-head records favor Deportivo Alaves, who have registered 3 wins compared to 1 victory for Sevilla, alongside 2 draws in their last six encounters. The most recent meeting on 14 February 2026 ended in a 1-1 draw, following a 2-1 away win for Sevilla in September 2025. Alaves achieved three consecutive victories between August 2023 and September 2024, scoring nine goals across that three-game run.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | La Liga | Sevilla vs Alaves | 1-1 | Draw |
| 2025-09-20 | La Liga | Alaves vs Sevilla | 1-2 | Sevilla |
| 2025-04-20 | La Liga | Sevilla vs Alaves | 1-1 | Draw |
| 2024-09-20 | La Liga | Alaves vs Sevilla | 2-1 | Alaves |
| 2024-01-12 | La Liga | Sevilla vs Alaves | 2-3 | Alaves |
| 2023-08-21 | La Liga | Alaves vs Sevilla | 4-3 | Alaves |
Predicted Starting XI Lineups and Absences
Sevilla – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | O. Vlachodimos |
| Defender | Juan Iglesias |
| Defender | Kike Salas |
| Midfielder | L. Agoumé |
| Midfielder | G. Kochorashvili |
| Attacker | Peque Fernández |
| Defender | Fábio Cardoso |
| Attacker | Isaac |
| Defender | G. Suazo |
| Midfielder | C. Ejuke |
| Defender | José Ángel Carmona |
Deportivo Alaves – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Sivera |
| Defender | N. Valentini |
| Midfielder | Guevara |
| Midfielder | Antonio Blanco |
| Midfielder | Carles Aleñá |
| Attacker | Toni Martínez |
| Defender | N. Tenaglia |
| Attacker | L. Boyé |
| Defender | Jonny |
| Midfielder | Pablo Ibáñez |
| Attacker | Miguel Rodríguez |
Team News
Sevilla absences: No key absences.
Deportivo Alaves absences: No key absences.
Analytical Breakdown of the Match Odds
Statistical evaluation projects a 60% probability of a Sevilla home victory, establishing a +12.2% expected value against the available market line of 1.87. Although Deportivo Alaves possess a strong historical record in past head-to-head encounters, their recent defensive metric of 2.2 conceded goals per game severely limits their ability to suppress home attacks. Sevilla’s average output of 2.0 goals per game presents sufficient offensive leverage against an open defense. Conversely, market pricing on the draw at 3.3 (-27.4% expected value) and an away win at 3.95 (-28.9% expected value) offer no statistical edge based on Alaves’ low scoring rate of 0.8 goals per game.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | Sevilla | 1.87 | ★★ Value |
| Draw | Draw | 3.3 | No value |
| Match Result | Deportivo Alaves | 3.95 | No value |
Final Match Verdict and Score Projection
Sevilla possess clear quantitative advantages in offensive output, averaging more than double the goal production of Deportivo Alaves over their last five matches. Combined with Alaves’ defensive concession rate of 2.2 goals per game, the mathematical model identifies significant value in back-to-back home goals. A 2-1 victory for Sevilla aligns with both teams’ scoring and defensive metrics.
| Predicted Score | Sevilla 2-1 Deportivo Alaves |
| Most Likely Result | Home Win |
| Recommended Bet | Home Win @ 1.87 (EV +12%) |
How This Prediction Was Made
This prediction was prepared by Javier Torres. The pick combines Javier’s experience following European football with data gathered for this specific match. Data used: current league table, each team’s last five results, head-to-head history, injury and suspension news, pre-match odds, our own outcome probabilities.
Responsible Gambling
18+. This prediction is an opinion based on data, not a guarantee. Betting involves risk – only stake what you can afford to lose and gamble responsibly.
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