AC Milan vs Bologna Prediction & Betting Tips – Serie A
AC Milan vs Bologna Odds Assessment
Bookmaker odds of 1.59 for an AC Milan victory imply a 62.9% win probability, while our model estimates the host win probability at 61%. A draw is priced at 3.75 (26.7% implied probability) against our calculation of 23%, and a Bologna victory carries odds of 5.1 (19.6% implied probability) versus our estimated 16%. With negative expected values across all three match outcomes (-3.0% for home win, -13.7% for draw, and -18.4% for away win), the betting market offers no statistical edge. AC Milan occupy 4th position in Serie A with 18 points from 8 matches, whereas Bologna sit 13th with 8 points.
AC Milan Form and Offensive Metrics
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | Serie A | Udinese | 2-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-22 | UEFA Europa League | Bournemouth | 0-3 | Loss |
| 2026-10-18 | Serie A | Atalanta | 3-2 | Win |
| 2026-10-15 | UEFA Europa League | Red Bull Salzburg | 4-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-11 | Serie A | Sassuolo | 1-1 | Draw |
AC Milan enter this fixture following a 2-0 league win over Udinese, bringing their overall Serie A record to 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses. Their recent form across all competitions stands at WLWWD, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game. They maintain an undefeated record in domestic play, accumulating 18 points and a +9 goal difference.
Bologna Defensive Record and League Position
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Serie A | Cagliari | 2-0 | Win |
| 2026-10-17 | Serie A | Inter | 1-3 | Loss |
| 2026-10-11 | Serie A | Lecce | 2-1 | Win |
| 2026-09-19 | Serie A | Torino | 1-1 | Draw |
| 2026-09-13 | Serie A | Napoli | 0-1 | Loss |
Bologna picked up a 2-0 win against Cagliari in their most recent fixture, bringing their total to 8 points from 8 Serie A matches. Their recent form across all competitions displays a WLWDL sequence, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 goals conceded per game. A 10-point gap separates Bologna from AC Milan in the league table heading into Wednesday’s match at 17:30 UTC.
Head-to-Head History Favors AC Milan
In their last 6 head-to-head meetings, AC Milan recorded 4 wins, Bologna won 1 match, and 1 fixture ended in a draw. The most recent match on February 3, 2026, resulted in a 3-0 away win for AC Milan, following two home wins for Milan in 2025. Bologna’s sole victory during this stretch was a 2-1 home win on February 27, 2025.
| Date | Competition | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Serie A – Regular Season – 23 | Bologna vs AC Milan | 0-3 | AC Milan |
| 2025-09-14 | Serie A – Regular Season – 3 | AC Milan vs Bologna | 1-0 | AC Milan |
| 2025-05-09 | Serie A – Regular Season – 36 | AC Milan vs Bologna | 3-1 | AC Milan |
| 2025-02-27 | Serie A – Regular Season – 9 | Bologna vs AC Milan | 2-1 | Bologna |
| 2024-01-27 | Serie A – Regular Season – 22 | AC Milan vs Bologna | 2-2 | Draw |
| 2023-08-21 | Serie A – Regular Season – 1 | Bologna vs AC Milan | 0-2 | AC Milan |
Expected Lineups and Player Absences
AC Milan – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | M. Maignan |
| Defender | P. Estupiñán |
| Defender | F. Tomori |
| Defender | S. Pavlović |
| Defender | Mario Gila |
| Midfielder | L. Modrić |
| Midfielder | A. Jashari |
| Midfielder | Y. Musah |
| Midfielder | C. Pulišić |
| Attacker | Gonçalo Ramos |
| Midfielder | O. Hutchinson |
Bologna – Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
| Goalkeeper | Ł. Skorupski |
| Midfielder | N. Zortea |
| Defender | N. Casale |
| Defender | A. Theate |
| Midfielder | Juan Miranda |
| Midfielder | L. Ferguson |
| Midfielder | N. Moro |
| Goalkeeper | M. Pessina |
| Attacker | F. Bernardeschi |
| Attacker | A. Dovbyk |
| Attacker | N. Cambiaghi |
Team News
AC Milan absences: S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, A. Saelemaekers, M. Gila, R. Loftus-Cheek, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot.
Bologna absences: E. Holm, R. Orsolini, R. Piccoli.
Market Expected Value Analysis
The market prices AC Milan at 1.59, equivalent to an implied probability of 62.9%, whereas our internal model evaluates their win chance at 61%. This produces a negative expected value of -3.0% on the home win market. The draw option at 3.75 yields an expected value of -13.7% against an estimated 23% probability, while Bologna at 5.1 delivers an expected value of -18.4%. Because no selection offers a positive return against projected probabilities, disciplined bankroll management requires avoiding pre-match selections on this fixture.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match Result | AC Milan | 1.59 | No value |
| Draw | Draw | 3.75 | No value |
| Match Result | Bologna | 5.1 | No value |
Model Prediction Summary
AC Milan hold the edge in form and head-to-head records, entering with a 2.0 goals per game scoring average compared to Bologna’s 1.2 goals per game. However, bookmaker odds have fully accounted for this statistical disparity. With negative expected value on all outcomes, the model advises no bet for this fixture.
| Predicted Score | AC Milan 2-1 Bologna |
| Most Likely Result | Home Win |
How This Prediction Was Made
This prediction was prepared by Oliver Grant. The pick combines Oliver’s experience following European football with data gathered for this specific match. Data used: current league table, each team’s last five results, head-to-head history, injury and suspension news, pre-match odds, our own outcome probabilities.
Responsible Gambling
18+. This prediction is an opinion based on data, not a guarantee. Betting involves risk – only stake what you can afford to lose and gamble responsibly.
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